My NFL gambling season is very similar to the season the Pittsburgh Steelers are currently having. There’s some really high high’s, like going 11-2 ATS two weeks ago, and then some really low low’s, like going 4-9 last week (G-Hunt and I tied the week. Barf). The Steelers have beaten the Ravens and the Colts but also lost to the Buccaneers and Jets.
On the season I’m hitting 55%, which puts me in the money and is a good position to be in. Just like the Steelers, who are 6-4 and only 1 game out of first place in the AFC North.
I’ve been playing underdogs a ton this year and they got absolutely crushed last week. Them the breaks. Using the 80/20 Rule and betting uncomfortable has worked for me so far and I’m sticking to it.
Now time for our NFL Week 11 Picks ATS (lines are from Tuesday):
Bills @ Dolphins -5
Greg: Dolphins -5
Rob: Dolphins -5
I like how the Dolphins have played over their last four games (3-1 ATS), and the Bills are only 1-3 ATS in their last four games and Fred Jackson not playing isn’t gonna help that. Also, in their last seven meetings the favorite in this matchup is 6-1 against the spread. Trends don’t actually matter, just worth pointing out.
Vikings @ Bears -3.5
Greg: Vikings -3.5
Rob: Vikings +3.5
What about the way the Bears have played over the last few weeks makes you believe they should be favored by more than a field goal? No thanks. I have no clue what I’m getting with them.
Texans @ Browns -3
Greg: Browns -3
Rob: Browns -3
More of a play against Ryan Mallet’s first start than a belief in the Browns. The Browns are only 2-2-1 as a favorite this year, so tread lightly.
Eagles @ Packers -6
Greg: Packers -6
Rob: Packers -6
The Mark Sanchez comeback story is great and all but the Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in football story is better.
Seahawks @ Chiefs (even)
Greg: Chiefs
Rob: Chiefs
Something just doesn’t seem right with this Seahawks team. Wins just aren’t coming as easily (sans last weeks Giants game) and the Chiefs are 6-1 straight up in their last seven. I find myself rooting for Alex Smith because somehow “game manager”, not throwing interceptions (he’s only thrown 4 all year), and winning games is a bad thing. Just ask Bears fans if they’d rather have Alex Smith right now.
Broncos -10 @ Rams
Greg: Broncos -10
Rob: Rams +10
80/20 Rule. The Broncos are only 5-4 ATS on the season so they are no automatic ATM deposit. This is their third straight road game so I’m hoping that somehow helps the Rams keep it close-ish.
Bengals @ Saints -7
Greg: Bengals +7
Rob: Saints -7
The good Saints team that we all thought they’d be looks to be here, plus they are much better at home. Last week couldn’t have gone worse for the Bengals but it’s only one game. That being said, I’m not about to back the Red Rocket after that dumpster fire of a performance.
49ers -4.5 @ Giants
Greg: Giants +4.5
Rob: 49ers -4.5
The Giants are heading in completely the wrong direction. They’ve lost their last four and have played like diddly poo. If Tom Coughlin’s hot seat were a player in NBA Jam he would have just nailed four in a row and would be on fire.
Buccaneers @ Redskins -7
Greg: Buccaneers +7
Rob: Buccaneers +7
Tampa loses close sometimes just like Preston wears shirts sometimes. I’m finding myself rooting against RGIII. Not sure why as I had him on my college fantasy football team and he crushed for me. Maybe it’s because he’s portrayed to be a drama queen and I’m not about that.
Falcons @ Panthers -1.5
Greg: Panthers -1.5
Rob: Panthers -1.5
This game is going to end up in a tie, somehow.
Raiders @ Chargers -10.5
Greg: Chargers -10.5
Rob: Raiders +10.5
The Chargers are 0-4 ATS the last four and have lost their last three straight up. Crazy, a Chargers team that’s terribly inconsistent that looks like a Super Bowl contender for a few weeks and then pedestrian the others. Ho hum, business as usual.
Lions @ Cardinals -2
Greg: Lions +2
Rob: Cardinals -2
Are we all ready to trust Matthew Stafford and watch as he makes the leap to the next level by winning a big time road game sending the Lions to an NFC best 8-2? I’m not.
Patriots @ Colts -2.5
Greg: Patriots +2.5
Rob: Colts -2.5
The storyline after this game will be “the AFC torch has been passed” as Andrew Luck goes buck wild and leads the Colts to a thrilling victory over Tom Brady’s Patriots. By the way, Andrew Luck is pretty awesome but do you think his career will end up better than Tom Brady’s? I’d say no. It ain’t easy to win all those Super Bowls.
Steelers -5 @ Titans
Greg: Titans +5
Rob: Steelers -5
This Steelers team is so inconsistent and undisciplined and Mike Tomlin has to get some heat for that. His Steelers teams lose to more inferior teams than is acceptable. The standard is the standard don’t jive.
Head-to-Head weekly victories and season record:
G-Hunt (3-5-2): 78-65-4 (54.5%)
Rob (5-3-2): 79-64-4 (55.2%)
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