176: NFL Week 4 Survivor Pool Picks

Congratulations if you made it to NFL Week 4 in your survivor pool. It’s an impressive feat that you lasted this considering the number of people who decided to go rogue, pick a stupid team, and get knocked out so early. Rob Cressy is joined by Tom Hamm on the Bacon Sports podcast as they talk about their NFL Week 4 Survivor Pool Picks.

Up until this point it hasn’t been that hard, really. The most obvious picks with the highest point spread have won every week, though the Dolphins tried their hardest to crap away their game vs the Browns. Thanks God I don’t have to put all my eggs in the Ryan Tannehill basket again.

That brings us to Week 4 where we have our first teams on byes (Packers, Eagles), meaning we have one less game to choose from.

This week there are no double digit spread games, but we have three at a TD or more.

NFL Week 4 is a palatable for survivor pool picks as 5 of 15 games have a spread of 5 points or more. Here are those games:

• Browns @ Redskins -8
  • Why you would take the Redskins: it’s a pick against the Browns, arguably the worst team in football. They are starting Cody Kessler, a poor man’s Matt Barkley.
  • How could this pick go wrong? Trust in Kirk Cousins is wavering, though last weeks road victory over the Giants was a nice way to build some trust back. He’s still a QB that has started only one full season.
• Rams @ Cardinals -8
  • Why you would take the Cardinals: We all think the Cardinals are a really good team, possible Super Bowl contenders. They are clearly the better team, they just haven’t gotten off to an ideal start. They’ll turn it in gear, at home, versus a team that lost to the 49ers by 28. And Case Kennum is their quarterback.
  • How could this pick go wrong? Picks is the operative word. Carson Palmer threw four of them last week against the Bills. Remember how crappy we all thought the Bills were heading into last week? The Rams just beat the Seahawks, a perennial Super Bowl contender, as well as won on the road against the Buccaneers, a team that many people liked to take the next step. It’s not unfathomable to think that Carson Palmer is about to have a steep decline in his mid-30’s, continuing with this game, and the Rams, with a tough defense and Todd Gurley, pull one out.
• Dolphins @ Bengals -7 (TNF)
  • Why you would take the Bengals: The Bengals are a potential playoff team who started with a brutal schedule: on the road at the Jets (win), on the road at Pittsburgh (loss), at home vs the Broncos (loss.) They are still a good team and they’ll take care of business at home, on a short week, against a team that should have lost to the Browns if not for a just signed kicker having an atrocious day.
  • How could this pick go wrong? Turnovers. Weird ones. In Bunches. The Bengals play an awkward game, which somehow allows the Dolphins to win despite their every attempt not to.
• Titans @ Texans -6.5
  • Why you would take the Texans: We taped the podcast before the news of JJ Watt being put on IR, and him not playing in this game moved the line down to Texans -5, which still puts it into consideration for being selected. The Titans are a cute storyline but they had a chance last week to beat a Raiders team at home, get a good win that could have us believing in their progress, but that didn’t happen. The Texans are the class of this putrid division, and they take care of business.
  • How could this pick go wrong? Brock Osweiler has only been their QB for about 10 seconds so he’s no sure thing. Just because Jadeveon Clowney had one really awesome hit in college, doesn’t mean that he’s the next JJ Watt (in 20 games in 2+ seasons Clowney only has 5.5 sacks and 56 tackles.) The Titans bounce back, run the crap out of the ball against a Texans D that has given up the 7th most rush yards of any NFL team this season, and win a low scoring game. The Titans D has given up the same amount of points per game this season as the Broncos (19 ppg.)
• Chiefs @ Steelers – 5.5
  • Why you would take the Steelers: Throw away last week, shit happens. It’s a new week and these are still your Super Bowl contending Steelers, who just so happen to be getting back Le’Veon Bell, the best running back in football. It’s a primetime game, in Pittsburgh, at night. Who are you taking: 2x Super Bowl winning QB Ben Roethlisberger or Alex Smith?
  • How could this pick go wrong? The Chiefs are playoff contenders who can win regular season games (they’ve won 11 in two of the last three seasons.) Their defense just forced 186 turnovers vs the Jets last week. They keep that trend going and when you win the turnover battle your odds of winning greatly increases.

Rob’s survivor pool pick (he’s in two leagues): Bengals and Redskins
Tom’s survivor pool pick: Bengals

I decided to make this a two part podcast, to make it easier for you to listen, where Tom and I talk about the remaining 10 games on the NFL Week 4 slate.

Here’s the games we dish about.

• Panthers -3 @ Falcons
• Raiders @ Ravens -3.5
• Broncos -3 @ Buccaneers
• Cowboys -3 @ 49ers
• Saints @ Chargers -4.5
• Lions -2.5 @ Bears
• Colts -2.5 @ Jaguars
• Giants @ Vikings -4 (MNF)
• Bills @ Patriots (no line)
• Seahawks @ Jets (no line)

ACTION ITEMS:

• I want to hear from you. Who are you taking in your NFL Week 3 Survivor Pool? Are there any non-obvious teams you particularly like this week? Which teams do you believe in and which do you have questions about? Drop me a line on Twitter @BaconSports or on Snapchat @baconsports and let me know what’s up.
• Check out more of The Bacon Sports podcast here.

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