NFL Week 7 Picks ATS

Heading into Week 6 of the NFL season, I was hitting at a 64% clip against the spread, had a five game lead on G-Hunt, and had won every head to head week aside from one tie. I was swimming in vaults of gold coins Duck Tails style. Then last week happened and my walls came crumblin down thanks to a 4-11 week. G-Hunt continued his steady picking to the tune of 9-6, and now we are tied overall, both still winning at an impressive 57% ATS.

Last week I mentioned that I was flying blind since Chad Millman’s Behind the Bets podcast, which normally comes out on Wednesday’s, had not come out before I submitted my picks and that’s where I get a good amount of my information. I had to trust what I’ve learned from them on the fundamentals of finding value/picking games and unfortunately the games just didn’t work in my favor. But that’s OK. The 80/20 Rule doesn’t work every time, but over the course of a season if you play it, the odds are in your favor that the 20% will end up hitting more often than not.

On this week’s podcast Scooch and Chad Millman brought up an interesting point. Sometimes a team is so inconsistent and does everything they can to make sure that they don’t cover, that you just can’t trust them. Case in point, the Jaguars and the Jets, who are both gambling train wrecks. Each week is a different situation, but both teams are an exception to the 80/20 Rule (when applicable) where you’d rather back the favored team and if they prove you wrong, oh well.

Here are our NFL Week 7 Picks ATS (note: we use Tuesday’s lines):

Jets @ Patriots -9

Greg: Patriots -9
Rob: Patriots -9

I’m a fan of getting points but there’s no way that I can trust the Jets. Geno Smith may have won Floyd Mayweather $600k on his late game pick six, but he bent me over with that gaff. That is capable of happening every single week with the Jets. No thanks.

Vikings @ Bills -3.5

Greg: Bills -3.5
Rob: Bills -3.5

Kyle Orton makes me wanna shout!

 

Dolphins @ Bears -3

Greg: Bears -3
Rob: Bears -3

Jay Cutler has three games this season where he threw zero interceptions. The Bears won each of those games. Jay Cutler has three games this season where he threw two interceptions. The Bears lost each of those games. Here’s to hoping interception free Jay Cutler shows up.

Saints @ Lions -3

Greg: Saints +3
Rob: Saints +3

I’m not a fan of taking the Saints on the road, especially if they don’t have Jimmy Graham, but I’m also not a fan of trusting the Lions without Calvin Johnson. I’ll take the points in a toss up game of uncertainties.

Panthers @ Packers -7

Greg: Panthers +7
Rob: Panthers +7

The Panthers are 4-2 ATS this season and the Packers are too public of a team for me. I previously said that I expect inconsistency from this Panthers team, but I like getting a touchdown.

Bengals @ Colts -3

Greg: Colts -3
Rob: Bengals +3

80/20 Rule AND I’m getting the team that two weeks ago many thought was the best in the NFL. Yes please.

Seahawks -6.5 @ Rams

Greg: Seahawks -6.5
Rob: Rams  +6.5

80/20 Rule. The Seahawks are still a very public team despite their armor being more vulnerable than many expected. On the road they aren’t nearly as dominant.

Titans @ Redskins -5

Greg: Titans +5
Rob: Redskins -5

I know one game that I will not be watching on Sunday.

Browns -5.5 @ Jaguars

Greg: Browns -5.5
Rob: Browns -5.5

Almost 80/20 Rule but not quite. Taking the Browns on the road laying points has to be a low point of my gambling career.

Falcons @ Ravens -7

Greg: Falcons +7
Rob: Ravens -7

The Falcons have two wins this season, both against teams with losing records. In all other games they’ve lost by double digits. Wake me up when they get an offensive line.

Chiefs @ Chargers -4

Greg: Chiefs +4
Rob: Chiefs +4

I’m going to be betting against the Chargers the majority of the year. The Chiefs are coming off a bye, for whatever that’s worth.

Giants @ Cowboys -5.5

Greg: Cowboys -5.5
Rob: Giants +5.5

I’m going to be betting against the Cowboys the majority of the year. Their lines are inflated because they are America’s Team a super public team, even more so now that they just beat the mighty Seahawks on the road.

Cardinals -3.5 @ Raiders

Greg: Cardinals -3.5
Rob: Raiders +3.5

80/20 Rule. Because it’s the Year of Minority I’m needing the Raiders a lot this year. So far they are 3-2 ATS this year, which I’ll gladly take.

49ers @ Broncos -6.5

Greg: 49ers +6.5
Rob: 49ers +6.5

The new America’s Team is also super duper public. Unlike the Raiders, I’ll very often be betting against the Broncos this year, who are only 2-3 ATS this season.

Texans @ Steelers -3.5

Greg: Steelers -3.5
Rob: Steelers -3.5

I might be afraid of touching fish but I am not afraid of Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road on a National TV game. As a Steelers fan their performance this season has made me want to puke, but I’ll be a yinzer and back the team with the two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback.

Head-to-Head weekly victories and season record:
G-Hunt (1-4-1): 50-37-3 (57%)
Rob (4-1-1): 50-37-3 (57%)