Sports

2014 Guide to Gambling and Week 1 NFL Picks

By September 4, 2014 No Comments
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The gambling season is here! With the return of both football’s comes the return to gambling for yours truly (and many of you). I watch or listen to sports pretty much every moment that I’m awake. The thing about gambling is that the amount of sports information one consumes doesn’t necessarily translate into Straight Cash Homey. Because we are all in the same boat and tying to disseminate all the information out there, I wanted to throw you a bone and let you know about the football betting outlets/information that I use.

Chad Millman’s Behind the Bets (aka the Scooch Pod)

Chad Millman is the editor-in-chief of ESPN the Magazine and dot com and is also on Colin’s Football Show (more on that later). He and Vegas Bookmaker Bob Scucci dish about what’s going on in the world of betting from a sharps vs public vs the Book perspective. They are both entertaining, Millman’s wit is enjoyable, and the actual gambling knowledge they drop is very insightful. I’d rather incorporate a very knowledgable Vegas perspective like this than be a square that just bets the Broncos because Peyton Manning’s offense is so awesome.

The Herd/Colin’s Football Show

Regardless of what you think about Colin Cowherd’s radio show opinions, he is very pro-gambling and talks about it on his show. Colin is very matter of fact, lays out how he sees the scenario of the games/situation, and gives a strong opinion on it. That’s a good thing when trying to sift through all the fluff, like picks that Mike & Mike make. Colin also brings on Pregame.com founder and betting expert RJ Bell to give his thoughts on picks Colin makes in his Blazing Five for the week. Two years ago I played every single one of Colin’s Blazing Five picks and he straight crushed it to the tune of a 70% winning clip! In order to have a profitable season gambling you have to win something like 52.4% of your bets. Hitting 55% for a year is amazing. Hitting 70% for the year is like getting to take a lap in a space shuttle. When someone is hot you take their information and ride that Quad City DJ’s train all the way to the bank.

Colin came back to earth last season but that’s what happens in gambling. The important part is his takes and the guests he brings on are relevant to helping you mold together an informed decision.

Last year debuted Colin’s Football Show on Sunday mornings and the most popular segment was when Colin brought on Chad Millman to have him dissect whether his picks were liked by the sharps or not (which ties back to the Behind the Bets podcast). At the same time Millman would give his take on the picks, and last year he hit something like a 55%+ winning clip on air (of which I was riding for 90% of the season because his picks were out performing Colin’s).

If you are looking to get your last minute Sunday bets in before kickoff I’d definitely add Colin’s show to your routine. I can’t stress enough that there’s no guarantee that their picks will do well this year. All I’m saying is that they’ve got more informed information that you likely want to consider.

This year we are going to track how my and G-Hunt’s gambling chops stack up. We are going to pick every NFL game against the spread and see how we do. Each week we are considering implementing some sort of reward or punishment to the victor or loser (TBD). The lines we are using are from Tuesday (so some of them my have changed since then but this is what we are sticking with) and I’ll chime in with some thoughts on some games.

Here’s our Week 1 NFL Picks:

Packers @ Seahawks – 5.5

Greg: Seahawks -5.5
Rob: Packers +5.5

Nothing like a potential NFC Championship game preview in Week 1.

Saints -3 @ Falcons

Greg: Falcons +3
Rob: Falcons +3

Chad Millman and Scooch both like the Saints as their Super Bowl pick this year. I think the Falcons have a bounce back season, plus two year ago the Falcons were almost unbeatable at home.

Vikings @ Rams -4

Greg: Vikings +4
Rob: Vikings +4

Yawn.

Browns @ Steelers -6.5

Greg: Steelers -6.5
Rob: Steelers -6.5

I have a rule, I will never bet on the Steelers (which is very non-yinzer of me). My logic is that I’m too vested in them already (I have a Steelers tattoo) that I don’t need anything else to get my juices flowing.

Jags @ Eagles -10

Greg: Jags +10
Rob: Jags +10

Gambling is never easy yet most people assume that a 10 point spread equals an automatic ATM deposit. In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friend. I’ll almost always take a double digit dog.

Raiders @ Jets -5

Greg: Jets -5
Rob: Jets -5

Barf dot com.

Bengals @ Ravens -1.5

Greg: Bengals +1.5
Rob: Ravens -1.5

This is the Week 1 NFL QB Hater Bowl. Whoever loses this game has the worst quarterback in the world.

Bills @ Bears -7

Greg: Bears -7
Rob: Bills +7

I live in Chicago and I’m marrying a girl from Buffalo in two weeks. Plus I’m going to this game (which will likely be a podcast on it’s own since that means I’m not watching the Steelers game live). Like with the Eagles/Jags game everyone is betting the house on the Bears and already cashing their tickets. The Bears are the trendy non-Seahawks/Packers pick for the Super Bowl this year. The perception of the Bills is dog crap right now as Sammy Watkins is already dinged up and no one knows what to expect out of EJ Manuel. All of the signs point to the Bears steamrolling this game. Gambling is never a sure thing and I’ve got a weird hunch (which could very easily end with a 35-10 Bears blowout win) but I’m guessing that this game is awkward. Maybe Bryce Brown has a big run or Jay Cutler throws two picks and instantly infuriate Bears fans. Bears still win but ugly.

Redskins @ Texans – 2.5

Greg: Texans -2.5
Rob: Texans -2.5

No Ryan Fitzpatrick lead team has won more games than it lost while he was starting. Maybe RGIII is playing possum and reverts back to his rookie year form. Who knows with this game but the Texans have the better upside.

Titans @ Chiefs – 3.5

Greg: Chiefs -3.5
Rob: Titans +3.5

What’s up with all the Titans sleeper chatter this year? I’m not totally buying it, but I am rooting for Shonn Greene to be fantasy relevant this year.

Patriots – 4.5 @ Dolphins

Greg: Patriots -4.5
Rob: Dolphins +4.5

Using the same logic as the Bears/Bills game on this one. The Patriots aren’t 16-0 against the spread every year. They are on the road in a division game. It’s never that easy.

Panthers @ Buccaneers -2.5

Greg: Panthers +2.5
Rob: Panthers +2.5

The Panthers are better than everyone thinks they are right now. With Cam Newton being dinged up many people are talking like the Panthers are a five win team. The Buccaneers didn’t win five games last season. The Panthers D is still good.

49ers -4.5 @ Cowboys

Greg: Cowboys +4.5
Rob: Cowboys +4.5

More likely to happen: a 4th quarter Tony Romo interception in a big moment or all these off the field issues the 49ers are having actually effecting them? I’m going with both.

Colts @ Broncos -7.5

Greg: Colts +7.5
Rob: Colts +7.5

OMG! Peyton Manning is playing Andrew Luck!

Giants @ Lions -5.5

Greg: Lions -5.5
Rob: Lions -5.5

This game could end up 35-7 either way.

Chargers @ Cardinals -3

Greg: Chargers +3
Rob: Chargers +3

I can’t believe that I’m actually hearing positive steam for the Chargers GOING TO THE SUPER BOWL THIS YEAR! Everyone realizes that this is the Chargers, a team that is known for teasing everyone, right? This happens pretty much every year. You can pencil in an 8-8 season right now.

Rob Cressy

Rob Cressy

Sports loving free throw specialist and yinzer living in Chicago who is awesome most of the time, has run with the bulls in Spain, and is a graduate of Second City's Improv program.