Good teams bounce back after a blowout loss. Last week I was coming off a dismal 4-9 record with my NFL picks, but my track record all year was that of a winner so I was expecting a bounce back campaign.
Just like the Bengals, who not only covered but straight up throttled the “they probably aren’t as good as we all want them to be” Saints following their dumpster fire performance against the Browns, I turned in a positive performance to the tune of an 8-6 week. That was good enough to give me the victory for the week over G-Hunt, who went 7-7, giving me a three week head to head lead and extending my overall lead to two games.
We’ve both been hitting at winning clips all year and I’m feeling the positive momentum heading into the home stretch of the season.
Now time for our NFL Week 12 Picks ATS (lines are from Tuesday):
Chiefs -7.5 @ Raiders
Greg: Raiders +7.5
Rob: Raiders +7.5
Kansas City is an NFL best 8-2 ATS this year and they’ve covered in five straight. The doormat Raiders, who I seem to take every week, are an impressive and unexpected 5-5 ATS. I’m really conflicted with this pick because the Chiefs are good, the Raiders aren’t, and there is major blowout potential. Right now 81% of bets are coming in on the Chiefs so the 80/20 Rule applies. I’m going to take the Raiders, I feel very uncomfortable about it, but that’s treated me well so far.
Browns @ Falcons -3
Greg: Browns +3
Rob: Browns +3
I have zero faith in the Falcons. I got burned last week taking the Browns, but I’m hoping that the return of Josh Gordon actually means something. When in doubt, take the points.
Jets @ Bills -4.5
Greg: Jets +4.5
Rob: Bills -4.5
The Jets are an NFL worst 2-7-1 ATS. I don’t like anything about their team and will likely bet against them the rest of the year. I want to give a shout out to my father in law Kevin who lives in Buffalo who’s up to his neck in snow, literally.
Buccaneers @ Bears -6
Greg: Buccaneers +6
Rob: Buccaneers +6
I won’t be taking the Bears as favorites for the rest of the year, their D is just garbage (among other things). I’m looking forward to the Josh McCown vs Jay Cutler storyline. Even though I root for the Bears every week since I live in Chicago, I wouldn’t mind seeing McCown put up 350 yard with 3 TD’s as Smoking Jay does his best Jeff George impression and is a turnover machine.
Jaguars @ Colts -14
Greg: Jaguars +14
Rob: Colts -14
I’ve been on the Jaguars all year and it’s gotten me nowhere. They are an NFL worst 2-7-1 ATS and even though they seem to hang tough in games, numbers like that don’t lie. The value is definitely on taking the two touchdowns but with Indy coming off a blowout loss they are going to be ready to come back in a big way.
Packers -10 @ Vikings
Greg: Packers -10
Rob: Vikings +10
Right now the Packers are as public of a team as it gets and the line is inflated because of it. The 80/20 Rule applies to this game and squares think this game is like printing money. The Vikings are 3-1 ATS in their last four so it’s not like they’ve been 10 point underdog at home bad.
Lions @ Patriots -7.5
Greg: Patriots -7.5
Rob: Lions +7.5
The Lions are only 2-4 ATS in their last six including 1-2 ATS on the road. The Patriots come in blazing hot as they’ve covered their last three and are 5-1 ATS their last six.
I haven’t been a fan of the Lions all year. Last week I said that I didn’t think Matthew Stafford was ready to take it to the next level and win a big game and look what happened. The Lions lost on the road. Business as usual. This is just like what happens with the Chargers and Cowboys every year. They are consistently inconsistent.
I don’t believe the Lions will win this game but this spread is a touchdown and a bump, which is a lot in any game. The Lions D is really really good as they have allowed the fewest yards and points of any NFL team. The problem is their offense blows nuts, which isn’t what you’d think since they have Calvin Johnson (who has been dinged up).
We all know about the Patriots offense, Tom Brady, Bill Bellichick, etc. so I don’t need to talk about that. But think about this, the Lions have spent two first round picks on tight ends (Brandon Pettigrew, Eric Ebron). What if either of those two turned out to be a player of Gronk’s calibre. What would this Lions team look like then? I digress.
86% of the action is coming in on New England which means the 80/20 Rule applies.
Titans @ Eagles -10.5
Greg: Titans +10.5
Rob: Titans +10.5
Has Mark Sanchez really earn being a 10.5 point favorite in any game? Bitch please.
Bengals @ Texans -1.5
Greg: Bengals +1.5
Rob: Bengals +1.5
Have fun picking this game of might be good but definitely aren’t great. I’m taking the Bengals because they’ve been consistently good for longer. One game with Ryan Mallot at quarterback doesn’t make me forget the Bengals making the playoffs the last few years.
Rams @ Chargers -5.5
Greg: Rams +5.5
Rob: Chargers -5.5
It was a very enjoyable cover with the Rams last week. I’d like to thank them for that. It feels extra good to not only cover but see a Peyton Manning lead team lose on the road to a team they shouldn’t lose to.
Phil Rivers bent me over last week on my FanDuel daily fantasy football team and I’ve been fading the Chargers the last few weeks, so I’m definitely not about them. I do think that the Chargers are better and being at home is a good thing. Plus, does anyone actually know who the Rams starting quarterback is right now?
Cardinals @ Seahawks -6.5
Greg: Cardinals +6.5
Rob: Cardinals +6.5
I’ve been fading the Seahawks lately and it’s treated me really well since they are 1-5 ATS in their last six. Everything’s coming up Milhouse! I predict the Seahawks will become another line item on the Super Bowl hangover as they miss the playoffs this year.
Dolphins @ Broncos -7.5
Greg: Broncos -7.5
Rob: Dolphins +7.5
Just a weekly reminder that the Broncos don’t cover every week. They are 5-5 ATS on the season and 1-2 ATS in their last three. The Dolphins have been hot as they are 4-1 ATS their last five. Throw in the fact that the Broncos are dinged up plus the built in public sauce on the number and I like the Dolphins.
Redskins @ 49ers -9
Greg: 49ers -9
Rob: 49ers -9
You are on drugs if you have any faith in the Redskins or RGIII somehow turning it around on the road against a team fighting for the playoffs. The Redskins are 1-6 ATS their last seven and are a sinking ship. I am ignoring the 80/20 Rule in this instance.
Cowboys -3 @ Giants
Greg: Cowboys +3
Rob: Giants +3
Nothing about the Giants losing their last five games straight up and not covering in each of them makes them look like an attractive option. Throw in Eli’s barftastic performance and it’s even worse. What’s lost in last weeks game vs the 49ers is that the Giants not only had a chance to cover but win the game straight up. I don’t trust the Cowboys and this could be a classic “here comes the epic Cowboys collapse…again” game.
Ravens @ Saints -4
Greg: Ravens +4
Rob: Ravens +4
I’m out on the Saints. The Ravens are a better and more consistent team. This Saints team will be lucky to make the playoffs and even if they do because their division sucks they are a one and done at best.
Head-to-Head weekly victories and season record:
G-Hunt (3-6-2): 85-72-4 (54.1%)
Rob (6-3-2): 87-70-4 (55.4%)