Heading into last week I was reeling after an awful Week 13 which had me flirting for the first time this year with not having a winning season (52.4%). Well I wasn’t able to completely right the ship, but I was able to tread water to the tune of an 8-7-1 record which has me sitting at 53.4%. That was enough for me to take the week from G-Hunt, who continued his downward slide with a 6-9-1 record, which brought him to 51.4%.
With only three weeks remaining in the season I’ve secured the head to head title over him and have a four game overall lead. But all of that takes a backseat to the 52.4% number. I’m laser focused on it and am treating it like my bitter rival. I’ve come way too far to not beat it. Like Drago eloquently stated to Rocky, “I Must Break You!”
Here’s something you might find interesting:
The consensus top four teams in the NFL right now (in no order) are the Packers, Seahawks, Patriots, and Broncos. Their combined record ATS is 28-23-1 (54.9%).
The Vikings, Panthers, Raiders, and Rams, all teams that won’t make the playoffs, have a combined record ATS of 29-23 (55.7%).
Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
Here are our NFL Week 15 Picks ATS (lines are from Tuesday).
Cardinals @ Rams -4
Greg: Rams -4
Rob: Rams -4
The Rams have covered in four straight and they are doing it with defense. The Cardinals haven’t scored more than 18 points in a game in any of their last four. This game most certainly won’t be the greatest show on turf.
Steelers -1.5 @ Falcons
Greg: Steelers -1.5
Rob: Steelers -1.5
The Steelers control their own destiny. Win the next three and they are on. All three games are winnable and they’ll be favored. The problem with these Steelers team is their lack of consistency. The yinzer in me would like to think that having a two time Super Bowl winning QB plus Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown balling out of their minds would be a recipe for success. The problem is the Steelers pass D blows (23rd in ypg) and they are giving up a crap ton of points (21st in ppg). The Falcons will be passing the shit out of the ball which doesn’t bode well, but Julio Jones isn’t 100% and he’s been inconsistent this year.
Packers -5.5 @ Bills
Greg: Packers -5.5
Rob: Bills +5.5
80/20 Rule. The Bills are 3-0 ATS their last three including covering last week against Peyton Manning’s Broncos. The Packers are only 3-3 ATS their last six, so even though everyone thinks they are pissing Lucky Charms, that ain’t entirely the case when it comes to the points.
Bengals -1 @ Browns
Greg: Browns +1
Rob: Bengals -1
“Oh my God, the Bengals are the worst team in the world. How can they have Andy Dalton as their quarterback? Ewww!! They aren’t gonna make the playoffs and they are going to lose every gave from now until eternity.”
That’s how the public reacts after any game in which the Bengals lose and Andy Dalton is the main reason why. I get it, he makes mistakes in big games at horrible times. I also know that the Bengals have made the playoffs each of the last three seasons and the Browns are starting a rookie quarterback making his first ever NFL start. I’ll take the Bengals track record.
Vikings @ Lions -8
Greg: Vikings +8
Rob: Vikings +8
I’ve really enjoyed the Vikings latest 3-0 ATS run (or 2-0-1 depending on if you got last week at -6 or -5.5). The backdoor cover/tie last week against the Jets was phenomenal because wins against the Jets in heart breaking fashion feel extra good.
They Vikings now 6-1 ATS their last seven, which should be good enough to earn them a mention on Prince’s next album. (Their only non cover was against the hapless Bears, go figure). The Lions have seemed to right their offensive wrongs as they’ve scored 34 points in each of their last two games, albeit against the Bears and Buccaneers. I’m still not ready to believe in Matthew Stafford being the consistent rock that propels the Lions into the playoffs. He’s just shown too many times in the past that he’ll take a dump on the field late in the season in a game in which the Lions have no business losing.
Texans @ Colts -7
Greg: Colts -7
Rob: Colts -7
Say this out lout to yourself: Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road against Andrew Luck at home.
Raiders @ Chiefs -10.5
Greg: Chiefs -10.5
Rob: Raiders +10.5
The Oakland Raiders are my favorite 2-11 team ever. I’ve bet on them almost every single week because of the value and they’ve treated me to a 7-6 mark ATS. *Round of applause* The Jaguars are awful and they aren’t treating their supporters like that.
The Chiefs are 0-3 ATS their last three which is almost as bad as their pathetic attempt to march down the field with under a minute left and try and kick a game tying field goal last week. My mind was blown that they were throwing numerous 4 yard outs when they needed to pick up significant chunks of yardage. Even Navy’s offense could run a better 2-minute drill that that. And yet somehow after seeing that I’m supposed to lay more than 10 points with them? Bitch please.
Dolphins @ Patriots -8
Greg: Patriots -8
Rob: Patriots -8
It’s hard to not get caught up in the “The Patriots are coached by Bill Belichick and Tom Brady is their quarterback and they are probably the best team in the AFC” hype train. We’ve seen it before and when you bet against them, especially late in the season, more often then not you lose.
80/20 Rule is in effect here but I’m going to disregard it. Joe Philbin’s job security is anything but safe and this hardly seems like the game where he’s gonna turn everything around for the Dolphins.
Redskins @ Giants -7
Greg: Giants -7
Rob: Giants -7
Gross vs Grosser. At least the Giants are 2-1 ATS their last three and if not for a putrid second half versus the Jaguars that would be 3-0. This game should be used as a punishment to square up a bet. For example, you and a friend make a wager and the loser has to watch only this game on Sunday.
Buccaneers @ Panthers -3
Greg: Panthers -3
Rob: Panthers -3
The Panthers are 7-6 ATS this season and 1-0 with Derek Anderson under center. That’s good enough for me.
Jaguars @ Ravens -14
Greg: Ravens -14
Rob: Ravens -14
The Ravens have won a Super Bowl under Joe Flacco and are in a playoff race and the Jaguars are 3-9-1 ATS this season. The Jaguars have proven there is no limit to how bad they can be this year so I’m not getting anywhere near them.
Jets -1.5 @ Titans
Greg: Jets -1.5
Rob: Jets -1.5
And I thought the Redskins/Giants game was bad. My gawd! I said in previous weeks that I would not be betting on the Jets for the remainder of the season so I can’t believe I’m doing this. Hopefully this is where the Jets win one for Rex Ryan and he steps up to the podium at the postgame and says “I’ll tell you one thing, this team has no quit in them.”
Broncos -4 @ Chargers
Greg: Chargers +4
Rob: Broncos -4
I’ve been down on the Broncos all year because their numbers are inflated and their 6-7 ATS record reflects it. The Chargers are 1-6 ATS their last seven and that’s not a trend I like.
49ers @ Seahawks -10
Greg: Seahawks -10
Rob: Seahawks -10
To think that two weeks ago on Thanksgiving I took the 49ers giving points against the Seahawks and now they are 10 point underdogs. These teams are heading in complete opposite directions but it’s never easy to lay 10 in a divisional game. I’ve been wrong about the Seahawks the last three weeks so I’m ready to own up to my mistake by taking them.
Cowboys @ Eagles -3
Greg: Eagles -3
Rob: Eagles -3
The Eagles cover over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving made my turkey taste oh so sweet and I’m ready for seconds. Tony Romo is one hit away from permanently laying on his back and the Cowboys are only 2-4 ATS their last six.
Saints -3 @ Bears
Greg: Bears +3
Rob: Saints -3
Despite watching or listening to sports all day every day AND living in Chicago I don’t think that I’ll be watching much of this game. Disappointment isn’t fun to watch and this game is as disappointing as Jadeveon Clowney’s NFL career so far. Hopefully the Bulls, Blackhawks, or Penguins are on. I’m banking on the Saints having more to play for and that’s it.
Head-to-Head weekly victories and season record:
G-Hunt (4-8-2): 104-98-6 (51.4%)
Rob (8-4-2): 108-94-6 (53.4%)