NFL Week 2 Picks and the 80/20 Rule

One week of the NFL season is in the books and the hard work of listening to people who know more about sports betting than I do has paid off. I took home the head-to-head victory last week as I went 10-5-1 with my picks, though G-Hunt’s 9-6-1 was impressive. If we are both able to keep up this clip the rest of the year then I’m going to have to change my name to Bobby Vegas.

Last week I mentioned numerous times that gambling is never a guarantee, even if we all think that there’s no way that a game can lose. Case in point, the Dolphins beating the Patriots and the Bills beating the Bears. Both games seemed like no-brainers and had very lopsided ticket counts in favor of the team that ultimately didn’t cover. There’s a rule of thumb that I’ve adopted from the wise guys and it’s the 80/20 rule. If 80% of the betting action is on one side then get on the 20%. If the 80% always won then we’d all be living in mansions on the beach, but that’s not the case. Of course the 80% is going to win some times but in betting you are playing the percentages, looking for value, and over the long run you are looking for that slight edge that’ll allow you to have a winning season.

Now for the NFL Week 2 picks:

Steelers @ Ravens -2.5

Greg: Steelers +2.5
Rob: Steelers +2.5

If last weeks first half Steelers team shows up then they are sitting pretty. If it’s the second half team then anything is possible and yinzers will quickly start grumbling about Mike Tomlin.

Dolphins @ Bills pick

Greg: Dolphins pick
Rob: Bills pick

I was in attendance for the Bills victory over the Bears and I’m a Billiever. The Bills are riding a wave of good fortune and this early in the season that’s all I need. The Sabres owner just purchased the Bills so they are staying in Buffalo, plus the Bills are 1-0 which means optimism is at an all-time high for fans and the team. Coming to town are the hated Dolphins and Bills fans are going to be charged up like it’s 25 cent wing night with $1 Blue Lights.

Jags @ Redskins -5.5

Greg: Jags +5.5
Rob: Jags +5.5

Can it actually get any worse for RGIII and the Redskins? I say yes because they’ve showed me no reason to believe otherwise. The Jags are better this year, for whatever that’s worth. At the end of the season we’ll look back and see how many teams held a 17 point lead on the Eagles this season. There won’t be many so the Jags got that going for them, which is nice.

Patriots -3 @ Vikings

Greg: Patriots -3
Rob: Vikings +3

The Patriots couldn’t possibly start the season off 0-2 could they? History says it’s not likely, but the Vikings are getting three at home so a two point Patriots victory gets us what we are looking for.

Saints -6 @ Browns

Greg: Saints -6
Rob: Browns +6

80/20 rule here as everyone and their mother will be on the Saints. Selecting the Browns in this game makes me want to barf. I saw what happened in the first half of that Steelers team and the Saints offense could do that and more. Just crossing my fingers on this one.

Falcons @ Bengals -5

Greg: Bengals -5
Rob: Bengals -5

The Falcons are a dome team and better at home. Taking the points is enticing, especially since I like the Falcons this season, but the Bengals are a playoff team and they win games like this.

Rams @ Buccaneers -5.5

Greg: Rams +5.5
Rob: Buccaneers -5.5

Last week Doug Martin most certainly did not mess around and get a triple double which infuriated fantasy owners. When you draft a player based on bounce back potential and he gets injured and or plays like diddly poo the masses will turn on you quickly. I am a Doug Martin owner and am on that ship ready to jump off. Oh how fickle we can be sometimes.

Texans -2.5 @ Raiders

Greg: Texans -2.5
Rob: Texans -2.5

If the Raiders ever cover to beat me then so be it. I’m not betting on them unless they are a double digit dog or Rocket Ismail is back on the team.

Jets @ Packers -7.5

Greg: Packers -7.5
Rob: Jets +7.5

Sometimes you can either be smart, lucky or really stupid. This is one of those instances in which I could be very stupid. I saw how Geno Smith treated the football in the red zone and he was as careless as this driver who Dukes of Hazzard’d their car off a toll booth. Stupid rarely wins in the NFL. That being said, the Packers seem like the obvious pick here since they are 0-1, at home, and have a high powered offense. The Jets defense is good so here’s to hoping they keep it close and Geno Smith limits his stupid mistakes to one. Underdogs crushed last week so I’m playing that trend again.

Chiefs @ Broncos -12.5

Greg: Chiefs +12.5
Rob: Chiefs +12.5

Double digit dog who was a playoff team last year (even though I realize they aren’t the same team this year) against an inflated Broncos number. The Chiefs aren’t the Raiders.

Bears @ 49ers -6.5

Greg: 49ers -6.5
Rob: 49ers -6.5

If the Bears start 0-2 get ready for salty Jay Cutler vs Bears fans vs the media. We all know how that script plays out and it’s only Week 2, so there’s plenty of time for this to turn into a huge dumpster fire. That’s obviously overreaction theatre, and the Bears are likely to perform closer to the team we all thought they’d be before the season. It’s just a bad spot for them.

Eagles @ Colts -3

Greg: Colts -3
Rob: Colts -3

I don’t know what the hell that first half was out of the Eagles last week. I’m not totally drinking the Eagles Kool-Aid. Welcome back Reggie Wayne, he’s a player I root for for no particular reason than he’s good and does things right.

Seahawks -5.5 @ Chargers

Greg: Seahawks -5.5
Rob: Chargers +5.5

The Seahawks are good but they won’t go 16-0 against the spread and if the Chargers are going to be the trendy team that many picked in the preseason then they’ll need this game. In Phil Rivers I trust (gulp).

Lions @ Panthers -3

Greg: Lions +3
Rob: Panthers -3

The Panthers D is really good. It was nice to see the Lions get a home win, but wake me up when the Lions and Matthew Stafford are consistent.

Cardinals -2.5 @ Giants

Greg: Cardinals -2.5
Rob: Giants +2.5

Carson Palmer should never be laying points on the road. I don’t care who it’s against.

Head-to-head weekly victories and season record:
G-Hunt (0): 9-6-1
Rob (1): 10-5-1