Sports

NFL Week 3 Picks

By September 17, 2014 No Comments
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nfl-week-3-picksTwo weeks are in the books and there’s two victories for Bobby Vegas over G-Hunt. Week 2 of the NFL season wasn’t as kind to either of us as I went 8-7 and G-Hunt went 6-9 (we forgot to pick one game, somehow), but a win’s a win.

Last week I stressed the 80/20 Rule which states that in games in which there is heavily lopsided betting action on one side, you should take the other (there is no such thing as a sure bet in gambling). Well what do you know, both the Browns and the Jets, who were big dogs that were expected by the public to get blown out, both covered. This happened in Week 1 as well with the Bills covering versus the Bears and the Dolphins covering versus the Patriots. Remember this rule as you continue on your football betting journey.

Now on to the NFL Week 3 Picks:

Bucs @ Falcons -6.5

Greg: Falcons -6.5
Rob: Falcons -6.5

The Falcons are a better team at home and I’m still salty after taking the Bucs as my survivor pool pick last week. Someone wake me up when Doug Martin does anything.

Chargers @ Bills -2.5

Greg: Chargers +2.5
Rob: Bills -2.5

Initial sticker shock says take the Chargers and the points, especially after just beating the Super Bowl champs. The Chargers have to travel across the country and a sluggish game is very possible. The Bills have a physical O and D-line and winning in the trenches is a recipe for success. I Billieve!

Redskins @ Eagles -6

Greg: Eagles -6
Rob: Redskins +6

The Eagles have been trailing in the 4th quarter in both of their victories this season yet somehow have managed to cover both games. That’s not a trend that’s likely to lead to future success. I’m taking the points, Kirk Cousins, and a rejuvenated Redskins.

Texans -2 @ Giants

Greg: Giants +2
Rob: Giants +2

I don’t care how awful the Giants have been. Ryan Fitzpatrick is still Ryan Fitzpatrick and he’s due for an inexplicable 3 INT game where his team loses a game they have no business losing. Tom Coughlin’s hot seat is getting mighty toasty so you’d hope the Giants are playing with some fire.

Cowboys -1.5 @ Rams

Greg: Cowboys -1.5
Rob: Cowboys -1.5

Austin Davis would make a great NASCAR driver name. This is a play more against the Rams than it is for the Cowboys.

Vikings @ Saints -9.5

Greg: Saints -9.5
Rob: Saints -9.5

Logic says this is as must win for the Saints as an 0-3 start would be disastrous. The Vikings still have Matt Cassel at QB and there’s no Adrian Peterson. This line is from Tuesday but still sticks out like a sore thumb and is a potential 80/20 Rule. Despite all this there’s no way I can back the Vikings. Nothing like contradicting your own gambling rules.

Titans @ Bengals -6.5

Greg: Bengals -6.5
Rob: Titans +6.5

If the Titans are going to be the trendy team that many thought they’d be then this is the game they need to win. Perception of the Bengals right now is that they are a top three or four team in the NFL and the Titans are coming off a bad loss to the Cowboys. Zig when everyone else zags.

Ravens -1.5 @ Browns

Greg: Ravens -1.5
Rob: Ravens -1.5

With one victory over the Saints, Brian Hoyer’s public likability ranking is already greater than Joe Flacco’s. Unfortunately likability doesn’t always translate into on the field wins.

Packers @ Lions -1.5

Greg: Lions -1.5
Rob: Lions -1.5

The Packers are perceived to be better than the Lions based on Aaron Rodgers alone, but this has been a less than impressive start for the Packers. The sidearming Matthew Stafford Quisenberry is a roller coaster of decision making. This roller coaster is on the way up this game. I think.

Colts -6.5 @ Jags
Greg: Colts -6.5
Rob: Jags +6.5

Only one of these two teams lead the Eagles by 17 points in their matchup this season. It wasn’t the Colts. Could you imagine if the Jags beat the Colts, sending them to 0-3?

Raiders @ Patriots -14

Greg: Patriots -14
Rob: Raiders +14

Taking the Raiders only on the fact that 14 points is a lot to lay in an NFL game. Obviously nothing feels good about making this selection.

Broncos @ Seahawks -5

Greg: Seahawks -5
Rob: Seahawks -5

I watched the Super Bowl and that wasn’t a home game for the Seahawks.

49ers -2.5 @ Cardinals

Greg: 49ers -2.5
Rob: 49ers -2.5

I don’t care if it’s Drew Stanton or Carson Palmer, I ain’t rolling with that as my QB option against a perennial playoff team.

Chiefs @ Dolphins -4.5

Greg: Chiefs +4.5
Rob: Chiefs +4.5

Knile Davis is a better replacement running back than Lamar Miller. Alex Smith is better than Ryan Tannehill. Going with the Chefs.

Steelers @ Panthers -3.5

Greg: Panthers -3.5
Rob: Steelers +3.5

The Panthers have started out much better than people expected thanks to having a legit defense (they were a trendy preseason regression candidate). Perception of the Steelers is dog poop right now as they are coming off a drubbing from the Ravens. In gambling it helps to not overreact and instead expect a regression to the mean. The Panthers are legit but the yinzer in me thinks the Steelers will keep it close, somehow.

Bears @ Jets -2.5

Greg: Bears +2.5
Rob: Bears +2.5

Before the season if you were to tell me that Geno Smith and the Jets would be favorites against the trendy NFC Super Bowl pick Bears I’d say you were crazy. You are still crazy. Da Bears.

Head-to-Head weekly victories and season record:
G-Hunt (0): 15-15-1
Rob (2): 18-12-1

Rob Cressy

Rob Cressy

Sports loving free throw specialist and yinzer living in Chicago who is awesome most of the time, has run with the bulls in Spain, and is a graduate of Second City's Improv program.