Sports

NFL Week 5 Picks ATS

By October 2, 2014 No Comments
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nfl-week-5-picksLast week wasn’t pretty but a win’s a win. I took home another gambling victory despite just a 6-6-1 record. G-Hunt finished with a disappointing 5-7-1 thanks to the Patriots stink bomb on Monday Night Football. While neither record is anything to write home about they weren’t total disasters, which is what you need in order to stay above a 53% winning clip.

No gambling lesson this week. I’m gonna continue to be heavy with dogs and contrarian picks.

Now for our NFL Week 5 picks:

Vikings @ Packers -9

Greg: Packers -9
Rob: Packers -9

Thursday night game, on the road, Teddy Bridgewater’s dinged up. I don’t see a scenario where the Vikings can win this outright so I’m laying the points.

Texans @ Cowboys -6

Greg: Cowboys -6
Rob: Texans +6

Both the Texans and Cowboys are 3-1 ATS. Perception of the Cowboys is out of the stratosphere right now so it’s time to fade them. I don’t believe in Ryan Fitzpatrick but I haven’t forgotten the pre-season expectations for the Cowboys.

Bills @ Lions -7

Greg: Detroit -7
Rob: Bills +7

The Lions are 3-1 ATS and 2-0 ATS at home. I still have a hard time trusting them and Calvin Johnson isn’t close to being 100% healthy. Take away Megatron and Matthew Stafford ain’t the same (if it were to happen). I feel like there’s a chance that something weird happens in this game and Kyle Orton’s neck beard delivers his first cover of the year.

Browns -1 @ Titans

Greg: Browns -1
Rob: Titans +1

This is on principal. I ain’t laying points on the road with the Browns.

Ravens @ Colts -3.5

Greg: Colts -3.5
Rob: Ravens +3.5

Despite blowing out their last two opponents the Colts are still just 2-2 on the season. The Ravens have played above expectations so far and could win this game outright. Taking the points.

Buccaneers @ Saints -10

Greg: Saints -10
Rob: Buccaneers +10

The Buccaneers have been my kryptonite this year. Both losses in my double elimination survivor pool have come at the hands of the Buccaneers (Rams game, Steelers game). Last week they had no business beating the Steelers but they did. The Saints just got pounded and when teams lose big they typically bounce back the following week (like the Buccaneers last week). The problem with the Saints is that the perception of them is still the team that can score 50 points and win the Super Bowl. We all expect them to be able to turn it on at some point. This looks like a great time to do that, but we’ve been saying that for four weeks. I’m reluctantly taking the Buccaneers and the points as I continue my Year of Minority.

Falcons @ Giants -4.5

Greg: Falcons +4.5
Rob: Giants -4.5

Been riding the Giants for a few weeks now. The Falcons defense and offensive line are poop.

Rams @ Eagles -7

Greg: Eagles -7
Rob: Rams +7

Because the public thinks “the Eagles are going to blow them out and score 50.”

Bears @ Panthers -2.5

Greg: Panthers -2.5
Rob: Bears +2.5

This line seems weird based on the way the Panthers have been playing and Cam Newton’s health. The Bears are a better team than the one that showed up versus the Packers…I hope.

Steelers -6.5 @ Jaguars

Greg: Steelers -6.5
Rob: Steelers -6.5

I’m so pissed at the Steelers right now. Last week’s game versus the Bucs was exactly the disappointing game that the Steelers have been losing for the last three years. Barf.

Cardinals @ Broncos -7

Greg: Broncos -7
Rob: Cardinals +7

The Broncos are 0-3 ATS this year. Remember, Peyton Manning doesn’t blow every team out. The Cardinals defense is good enough to keep the Cardinals hanging around. This is also a game where if the Cardinals somehow pulled out the victory that perception of them would drastically change (even though perception of them is high-ish right now.)

Jets @ Chargers -6.5

Greg: Chargers -6.5
Rob: Chargers -6.5

I’m sick of taking the Jets and thinking they’ll play above expectations. The Chargers are 4-0 ATS. That’s enough for me.

Chiefs @ 49ers -6.5

Greg: Chiefs -6.5
Rob: Chiefs +6.5

Give me a game manager like Alex Smith over a gun slinger any day. Not turning the ball over is how you win games.

Bengals -1.5 @ Patriots

Greg: Patriots +1.5
Rob: Patriots +1.5

Overreaction theatre says the Patriots are done. The Bengals are arguably the best team in the AFC. The Patriots go Lee Corso and say “not so fast my friend.”

Seahawks -7 @ Redskins

Greg: Seahawks -7
Rob: Redskins +7

The Seahawks aren’t the same team on the road. I expect Kirk Cousins to bounce back at home.

Head-to-Head weekly victories and season record:
G-Hunt (0-3-1): 32-26-2 (55%)
Rob (3-0-1): 36-22-2 (62%)

Rob Cressy

Rob Cressy

Sports loving free throw specialist and yinzer living in Chicago who is awesome most of the time, has run with the bulls in Spain, and is a graduate of Second City's Improv program.