Sports

NFL Week 6 Picks ATS

By October 9, 2014 No Comments

week-6-ATSPicture me rollin! Little did 2Pac know, but when he released this dope rhyme it would be a precursor to my 2014 NFL gambling season. Five weeks in and Bobby Vegas and his Year of Minority are rollin in the 500 Benz to the tune of a 63.8% winning clip. Last week I raised my weekly win total to 4-0-1 over G-Hunt thanks to going 10-4-1 against the spread. Straight cash homey! G-Hunt did his thing as well, going 9-5-1, but yet again it wasn’t enough.

So how is a square like me doing so well against the spread? I’ve learned to deal with being uncomfortable and betting against the public.

Every week the 80/20 Rule yields winners and last week was no exception. Everyone thought that the Saints were going to bounce back in a major way last week. They were 10 point favorites over the lowly Buccaneers. Lock it up, take it to the bank. No way this can’t win, Drew Brees is going to throw for 700 yards. WRONG! Not only did the Saints not cover but they barely escaped utter disaster with an overtime victory. I’ll continue to preach it. When everyone zigs, you zag.

This week I feel kinda naked going into my selections. Every Wednesday I listen to Chad Millman’s Behind the Bets podcast and get insight into what the sharps in Vegas are betting. Typically I’m going with what they say because they know more than me. Well this week the podcast hasn’t happened yet so I’m flying blind. I’m going to have to take the principals that I think I’ve learned from them and follow my instincts.

Here are our NFL Week 6 Picks ATS:

Colts -3 @ Texans

Greg: Colts +3
Rob: Texans +3

Both teams are 4-1 ATS on the season. I’ve been anti-Ryan Fitzpatrick all season and have Andrew Luck on both of my fantasy teams, but I can get behind a home dog on a Thursday.

Bears @ Falcons -3.5

Greg: Bears +3.5
Rob: Falcons -3.5

The Falcons are a significantly better team at home and I just saw a segment on PTI comparing Jay Cutler to Jeff George.

Patriots @ Bills +3

Greg: Patriots -3
Rob: Bills +3

First everyone puts a fork in the Patriots, then they go and beat the Bengals, and now the Patriots that the public loves is back. The Bills winning this game would be beyond significant for a team that is always looking up at the Patriots. There’s a nice size kink in the Patriots armor and Kyle Orton is just the man to slay the dragon. Let’s Go Buffalo!

Panthers @ Bengals -7

Greg: Panthers +7
Rob: Bengals -7

The Bengals are a legitimately good team and the Panthers are a team I expect to be inconsistent.

Steelers @ Browns -2

Greg: Steelers +2
Rob: Steelers +2

This Steelers team drives me nuts. They are undisciplined, commit an insane amount of penalties, and their offense has been inconsistent despite having a 2-time Super Bowl winning QB, a top 5 WR and a top 5 RB. God help me if the Steelers lose to the Browns.

Jaguars @ Titans -6

Greg: Titans +6
Rob: Jaguars +6

Clipboard Jesus vs Blake Bortles. Talk about a showdown of epic proportions. I expect this Jaguars team to get better (trying to say with a straight face) and this is the game where it starts. By the end of the day Titans fans will call for Neil O’Donnell to come back.

TAKE-IT-NEIL-ODONNELL

Packers -3.5 @ Dolphins

Greg: Packers +3.5
Rob: Dolphins +3.5

I really really want to take the Packers here because I believe that they are significantly better than the Dolphins. But this is the Year of Minority. I feel uncomfortable taking the Dolphins and the betting percentage is almost 80/20 Rule (but not quite). Laces out.

Lions -1.5 @ Vikings

Greg: Lions -1.5
Rob: Vikings +1.5

Last week I accurately predict the Lions demise due to the health, or a lack there of, of Calvin Johnson. The Lions are inconsistent and I just can’t trust them laying points on the road. In Teddy Bridgewater I trust.

Broncos -9 @ Jets

Greg: Broncos -9
Rob: Jets +9

80/20 Rule. Nothing about the way the Jets have played make them an attractive bet and we all know how much everyone loves Peyton Manning.

Ravens -3.5 @ Buccaneers

Greg: Ravens -3.5
Rob: Ravens -3.5

The Buccaneers defense is poop. The Ravens two losses have come against the Bengals and Colts. Two playoff teams.

Chargers -7 @ Raiders

Greg: Chargers -7
Rob: Raiders +7

The Chargers are due for a “how the hell did that happen” type of game. Everyone is buying in hook, line, and sinker to the Chargers being a Super Bowl contending team. Everyone does realize that this is the Charger, right? A team that year after year shows so much potential and promise, and then inexplicably doesn’t take the next step. On the plus side for Oakland, at least they are coming off a bye and have a new coach.

Redskins @ Cardinals -3.5

Greg: Redskins +3.5
Rob: Redskins +3.5

Crossing fingers that Logan Thomas starts. Not that Carson Palmer is Fran Tarkenton.

Cowboys @ Seahawks -8

Greg: Seahawks -8
Rob: Seahawks -8

Sometimes it’s best to just not think too much into things. The perception of the Cowboys is still too high and the Seahawks are beast mode at home.

49ers -3.5 @ Rams

Greg: 49ers -3.5
Rob: Rams +3.5

80/20 Rule.

 

Head-to-Head weekly victories and season record:
G-Hunt (0-4-1): 41-31-3 (56.9%)
Rob (4-0-1): 46-26-3 (63.8%)

Rob Cressy

Rob Cressy

Sports loving free throw specialist and yinzer living in Chicago who is awesome most of the time, has run with the bulls in Spain, and is a graduate of Second City's Improv program.