Rob and Nate Dogg are back to dish about the Week 13 College Football lines. Actually, it’s just Rob. GarageBand was giving us technical issues and we were under a short timeframe to shoot the podcast because of Thanksgiving travels. Unfortunately we weren’t able to have a podcast version this week.
Had you been able to listen to our conversation it would have went a little something like this.
Rob: What’s up Nate Dogg. We had our worst week of the season last week, going 3-9 against the spread. Barf.
Nate Dogg: Ya, we sucked like Gunner Kiel did. He killed my fantasy team.
Rob: We’ve dropped to 4th place overall but strangely I still feel confident.
We are just 7 wins out of first place overall, and 3 wins out of second. We are sitting at 77-69 ATS on the year. This week is Rivalry Week and our college football pool doubles things up. We have 24 games to pick against the spread and 10 of them we have to allocate 200 confidence points on (no less than 5, no more than 50 on a game).
Here are our Week 13 College Football picks (selection in bold and confidence points in parenthesis). Since we weren’t able to give an audio version I’ll give a thought or two on each game based on what we were thinking:
- Texas Tech @ Texas -1.5
- Texas is at home and Texas Tech’s defense blows. Boy are times tough in Texas now.
- Miami @ Pitt -5.5 (10)
- Miami is awful and Pitt is sneaky goodish. Miami no longer has any motivation to win and we like Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi.
- Marshall +10.5 @ Western Kentucky
- Points on points on points. Marshall might not score the most points, but with the pedal all the way down they’ll keep it in single digits.
- Navy +1.5 @ Houston
- We are buying into Navy who’s been hot and are down on Houston after their loss to UConn. Rob also has the Navy QB on his college fantasy football team and is in the Championship game (this had no bearing on our decision, just a relevant humblebrag).
- Missouri +13.5 @ Arkansas
- 80/20 Rule. It makes us ill that we are taking Missouri since they have zero offense, but hopefully their defense keeps it low scoring enough.
- Boise St @ San Jose St +8.5 (15)
- I heard something on Chad Millman’s Behind the Bets podcast about the sharps being on San Jose St. We also think that Boise St’s name/brand may have the line slightly inflated with the public (who still treats them like Kellen Moore is the QB).
- Iowa -2.5 @ Nebraska (15)
- We believe in Iowa more than we do Nebraska.
- Oregon St @ Oregon -33.5
- Oregon St is beyond awful. Oregon is in a grove right now and they are at home. We envisioned holding an Oregon St ticket and the score 21-0 Oregon at the end of the first quarter and decided that didn’t seem like an enjoyable Choose Your Own Adventure. Plus everyone will be on Oregon so we won’t lose much if they don’t cover.
- Baylor -1.5 @ TCU
- Too much uncertainty with TCU’s quarterback situation (we submitted our picks on Wednesday at noon). Plus Baylor has more to play for.
- Iowa St @ West Virginia -13.5 (10)
- Sure it’s Iowa St’s head coach Paul Rhodes final game, but this team isn’t good and has little reason to get up for this game. West Virginia has also bounced back nice the last two games.
- Ohio St -1.5 @ Michigan (15)
- Urban Meyer ain’t losing two games in a row.
- Louisville -3.5 @ Kentucky (20)
- Randall Cobb ain’t walkin through that door.
- Clemson @ South Carolina +17.5
- 80/20 Rule. Sometimes you’ve gotta get comfortable with being uncomfortable. South Carolina clearly didn’t take the Citadel seriously. They will this game. Plus South Carolina’s D isn’t the worst ever.
- North Carolina @ North Carolina St +7.5
- Insert “throw the records out in this game” cliche. Getting more than a TD at home. Rob also has North Carolina quarterback Marquise Williams on both of his college fantasy football teams. Did I mention that I was in the Championship game in both leagues?
- Alabama @ Auburn -13.5
- 80/20 Rule. Get comfortable with being uncomfortable. We would have felt more comfortable had we got that extra 0.5 point, especially since the line is above 14 now.
- Georgia @ Georgia Tech +5.5
- What about this Georgia team makes me believe they are reliable enough to be favored by 5 on the road in a rivalry game? Plus Georgia Tech beat Florida St, for whatever that’s worth.
- Penn St +15.5 @ Michigan St (40)
- Letdown factor for Michigan St plus we got an inflated line.
- Oklahoma -4.5 @ Oklahoma St
- Oklahoma’s hype train is getting pretty loud, which has to get Big Game Bob Stoops nervous. But we believe in them more than Okie St.
- Notre Dame @ Stanford -3.5 (20)
- We believe in Stanford more.
- Ole Miss @ Mississippi St +1.5 (10)
- Senior quarterback, at home, getting points, in a close one. Book it.
- Texas A&M @ LSU -5.5 (50)
- Les Miles ain’t going out like some bitch. He’s gonna light LSU on fire with a blowout victory and a double middle finger salute.
- Florida St @ Florida +1.5
- Why should Florida St be favored on the road again? We like Florida’s defense.
- UCLA @ USC -3.5
- UCLA can suck a big one, they’ve burned us all year. Fight on.
- Arizona St @ California -4.5
- No logic other than no one cares about either of these teams and in a toss up game I’d rather root against Todd Graham.
The duo, who are friends from their time at Miami (OH) University and living in Cincinnati, are in a college football betting pool together where they pick 12 games against the spread every week and have 100 confidence points to put on 5 of those games. This podcast should be consumed as nothing more than entertainment as we are just two sports junkies who decided to turn on the mic and allow you in on our weekly college football conversation. This podcast is recurring and will run through the entire college football season so make sure to check back every Thursday afternoon.
- Week 12: 3-9
- Week 11: 8-4
- Week 10: 5-7
- Week 9: 6-6
- Week 8: 4-8
- Week 7: 4-8
- Week 6: 10-2
- Week 5: 5-7
- Week 4: 7-5
- Week 3: 4-7
- Week 2: 8-3
- Week 1: 13-3
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