Sports

NFL Week 10 Picks ATS

By November 5, 2014 No Comments

nfl-week-10-picks-atsQueue the Million Dollar Man Ted DiBiase’s music. “Money Money Money Money Moneyyyyyy!” Bobby Vegas is my name and putting cash in your pocket is my game.

I went 11-2 against the spread last week, and assuming you took even half of what I said to heart you’d be sitting at home with a Million Dollar belt just like Ted DiBiase. Hell, you might even have you own ring valet that accompanies you to work.

That brings my winning percentage up to 57.6%, which in the gambling world is like having a money tree. G-Hunt cooled off a bit going 7-6, but he’s still crushing at 56.9% clip.

All year I’ve been preaching about my Year of Minority, selecting teams that sometimes make me feel very uncomfortable, and the 80/20 Rule. Last week was a great example of all of those things happening successfully.

Everyone and their brother thought the Chargers getting points at Miami was a slot machine with a guaranteed payout. The 80/20 Rule was in effect. Final Score: Dolphins 37 Chargers 0.

The mighty Seahawks were laying 15 points at home. Even though the champs had not covered in each of their last three games, many thought the winless Raiders didn’t deserve to be on the same field. The Raiders kept it even closer than anyone imagined en route to the cover. The Raiders are now 4-4 against the spread whereas the Seahawks are a paltry 3-5.

Not sure how many times this needs to be said, but the Browns shouldn’t be laying a touchdown to anyone and Tampa Bay was no exception. Sure I felt super uncomfortable putting my faith in the crappy Bucs, but in gambling you are playing the odds. The consistency of the Browns winning games by more than a touchdown hovers around zero and crappy teams don’t always play to 100% crapacity.

Now time for our NFL Week 10 Picks ATS (lines are from Tuesday):

Browns @ Bengals -6.5

Greg: Bengals -6.5
Rob: Bengals -6.5

The Ravens are currently in last place in the AFC North, not the Browns. The Browns have consecutive victories for the second time this year and have won four of their last five. However, those wins were against the Titans, the crappy version of the Steelers, Raiders, and Buccaneers.

Did you know the Bengals have the 31st ranked run defense, giving up almost 140 yards per game? Barf central. The Browns aren’t much better (30th) and I like the Bengals running game better (even with Jeremy Hill starting.)

Chiefs -2 @ Bills

Greg: Chiefs -2
Rob: Chiefs -2

I think the Chiefs are a legitimately good team. I’ll be rooting for the Bills to win this game outright as I love the Kyle Orton story and hope he leads them to the playoffs.

Dolphins @ Lions -2.5

Greg: Dolphins +2.5
Rob: Lions -2.5

I’ve enjoyed betting on the Dolphins, who are 5-3 ATS and covered three straight. They are a surprising 4th in rushing yards on offense and 2nd in passing defense. Who woulda thunk?

I don’t have those same fuzzy feelings for the Lions, but I like that they are at home. I’m not ready to get that carried away with Ryan Tannehill on the road, though I’d be cool with seeing the “Is Ryan Tannehill better than Matthew Stafford?” storylines that would emerge if it happened, which would inevitably end with a who has a hotter WAG contest.

49ers @ Saints -5

Greg: 49ers +5
Rob: Saints -5

A trending upward Saints team who’s better at home against a trending downward 49ers team that just lost to Austin Davis at home. It has “seems too good to be true” written on it and would be exactly the type of FU game that Jim Harbaugh would like to shove in everyones face. The Saints see daylight because of their crappy division and now they are going to run with it.

Steelers -5 @ Jets

Greg: Steelers -5
Rob: Steelers -5

You know there’s a yinzer somewhere on the South Side taking the Jets +5 while wearing a Limas Sweed Steelers jersey. I ain’t gonna be that yinzer.

Falcons -1 @ Buccaneers

Greg: Falcons -1
Rob: Buccaneers +1

I can say with rather certainty that I won’t watch a single second of this game unless there is 2 minutes left and the cover is in doubt. 80/20 Rule is in effect here as 87% of the bets are coming in on the Falcons. That really makes me laugh. Really America, everyone thinks this game is an absolute lock? I get it, the Falcons beat them by 100 earlier in the year but I think Tampa never forgot that either.

Cowboys -7 @ Jaguars

Greg: Jaguars +7
Rob: Jaguars +7

The Cowboys haven’t covered in their last two and the chances of Brandon Weeden having to take snaps in this game is very likely. How comfortable would you feel saying “I’ve got Brandon Weeden in London needing to win by more than a touchdown?”

Titans @ Ravens -10

Greg: Titans +10
Rob: Ravens -10

I know who Baltimore is. They are a team who’s losses have come against the Steelers, Bengals, and Colts. All good teams. I know who Tennessee is. They are a team that lost to Colt McCoy and on the road Ryan Fitzpatrick. No thanks.

Broncos -11.5 @ Raiders

Greg: Raiders +11.5
Rob: Raiders +11.5

I would love to bet on the Raiders on Sunday morning where the line is gonna be juicier. No way I’m watching this potential slaughter.

Rams @ Cardinals -7

Greg: Rams +7
Rob: Rams +7

Been enjoying my ride with the Cardinals (who are 6-2 ATS) but I enjoy getting a touchdown just as much. It was a nice cover and straight up win for the underdog Rams last week. Just hope they limit the mistakes.

Giants @ Seahawks -9.5

Greg: Giants +9.5
Rob: Giants +9.5

Welcome to the game of downward gambling spirals. The Seahawks haven’t covered in a month and the Giants haven’t covered in their last three games. When in doubt, take the large number.

Bears @ Packers -7.5

Greg: Bears +7.5
Rob: Bears +7.5

80/20 Rule. Crossing my fingers that Jay Cutler’s 1-10 record against the Packers is due for a close loss.

Panthers @ Eagles -6

Greg: Eagles -6
Rob: Eagles -6

Here are the two Mark Sanchez scenarios for this game.

1. He is a better fit in this Chip Kelly high-powered offense and leads this talented Eagles team to a convincing victory over a very inconsistent and banged up Panthers team who are struggling to stay afloat in the worst division in football. The Eagles cover easily.

2. You lay the points expecting scenario number 1 to happen but then the “did you really just lay six points with Mark Sanchez starting his first NFL game of the year” rears its ugly head. You thought Butt Fumble #1 was bad, just wait until #2 when Sanchez throws four interceptions (he threw two last week in less than a full game) including an over the head with his left hand one to the nose tackle on the 5 yard line and the Eagles crap away a game they totally should have won.

Which is more likely to happen? I’m going scenario number 1, though seeing scenario number 2 unfold would be sports comedy gold.

Head-to-Head weekly victories and season record:
G-Hunt (3-5-1): 74-56-3 (56.9%)
Rob (5-3-1): 75-55-3 (57.6%)

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Rob Cressy

Rob Cressy

Sports loving free throw specialist and yinzer living in Chicago who is awesome most of the time, has run with the bulls in Spain, and is a graduate of Second City's Improv program.